Analysts of Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (Golden Fragrance, Qiu Chuncheng, Qian Liefei) released the research report of Aoyang Shunchang (002245) on July 19. Earnings forecast and investment suggestion: As the company's different businesses are in different life cycle, the segment valuation method is more reasonable. Based on the following discussion (1)(2), the company's reasonable valuation is about 7.54 yuan/share, 7 The closing price on the 18th ($5.80) has a 30% upside potential and maintains an “overweight†rating. (1) If the issuance is completed successfully, it is expected that the LED business will enter the rapid release period of performance in 2014 and 2015, contributing 52 million yuan and 145 million yuan respectively, and converting the current share capital (364.8 million shares) into EPS of 0.143 yuan and 0.397. yuan. Analysts gave LED business 25 times PE in 2014, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of 3.564 yuan / share; (2) 2013 to 2015 is expected to company IT metal logistics processing and distribution (steel plate + aluminum plate * 4) respectively reached 368,800 tons 4,200,000 tons, 430,000 tons, the growth rate of 13.58%, 14.13%, 2.38%, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.30 yuan, 0.33 yuan, 0.34 yuan, of which analysts did not consider the contribution of Gaoyou project (non-IT metal logistics) In 2015, the performance exceeded the analyst's current forecast. Small loan business analysts estimate that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2013 and 2014 was 24.92 million yuan and 25.76 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.068 yuan and 0.071 yuan respectively. It is estimated that the total contribution of the two businesses in 2013 and 2014 will be 0.30 yuan and 0.33 yuan, and the analyst will give 12 times PE in 2014, which corresponds to a reasonable valuation of 3.973 yuan/share. Risk warning: (1) fluctuations in LED backlight demand, twists and turns in the lighting market, expansion of rival capacity, lower than expected capacity expansion of the company; (2) fluctuations in downstream demand for metal logistics business due to macroeconomic impact; (3) microfinance business : Changes in the national credit policy; (4) If the additional issuance is not completed successfully, the implementation progress of the LED project may be lower than expected.
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